Yep, the most non-shocked I've been since yesterday.

While I don't disagree that demand has been pulled forward -- Chrysler is claiming that the issue here is available inventory:

From the article:

Quote:

Chrysler sales are being pinched beyond the industry decline because of a lack of cars and trucks on dealers’ lots, Peter Fong, the Auburn Hills, Michigan-based automaker’s lead sales executive, said today in an interview. Fong, who gave the percentage decline, said Chrysler dealers currently have 83,000 vehicles on hand, about one-quarter of what they had a year ago.

“For Chrysler, our story is a lack of inventory,” he said. “It’s the lowest level that anyone can remember. I think it’s likely that car sales will bounce back next month.”

The carmaker has increased production to replenish lots and should have them restocked later this fall, Fong said.

Of course they're claiming that - just like its always the weather....

I think this will finally really hit the fan when the Christmas buying season never materializes. Retailers will be folding left and right. I simply don't believe they'll be able to whitewash it any more.

Chrysler is a dead duck IMO. Every Chrysler dealer here in TX is loaded to the gills with Dodge trucks/heavier cars and cannot move them. This was the #1 market for Dodge trucks (they even built "Texas Edition" and "Lonestar" trucks) and they aren't selling at all.

Where are these "Fiatslers" that they are supposed to be selling anyways?

When is the fake economy gonna collapse? I'm tired of everyone lying!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I didn't realize a car was an impulse buy. How does not having an ocean of cars on the lot prevent people from buying?

Notice mortgage applications are also down now that the rebates are starting to turn into pumpkins

They can just keep extending all the stimulas programs... forever. Then the economy will never collapse. Problem solved!

The pulled forward demand pulled car purchases from all potential sellers into a small subset, mostly korean and foreign, because of the mpg requirements.

It's a proven maxim, that once on a showroom floor, even if they didn't qualify for clunker status, the odds are favorable that former GM and Chryler and Ford buyers purchased foreign.

In effect, The law of unintended consequences struck again. The .gov killed them by trying to help, but instead of shuffling them to US mfgs, put them into foreign showrooms.

Oy Vay!

If they don't kill this leech beast, then Gm and Ford can not survive.
Like the pain you discribe about defaulting credit.
It will be painful, but if not done in a hurry, will kill the others. Though GM, does not deserve **** from their "financial" operations and "forward" thinking.
****, I have a chrysler employee discount,too. A discount on ****, still ****.

So let's summarise.
Gm and Chrysler go bust.
We (no, not us but people who represent us) give them our money.
Now the same people give us back a little money to buy what we own in the first place.
Now the car companies bitch about not selling us enough stuff that we already own.

So get ready for the second episode of "how I got shafted really far up the ass and was asked to smile".
The second auto bailout is soon to come.
no pun intended

No snowman, get out of dodge now, and let GM limp, and kill them later.

I doubt if the government could get the dealers to go for a new round of CfC either. On the TV news in the Detroit area the dealers are still saying they haven't been paid.
They say they submit the paper work and it is denied. They just keep submitting it and at some point it mysteriously is Okay and they get paid.
I've seen the same foot dragging method used by health insurance companies. I suppose when you are processing the papers if you have to do so many a day you can turn one down faster than you can accept one. Only reason I can come up with unless they also just want to keep the job going as long as possible.

IMHO, Obama and the UAW crew will get what they want, by hook or crook.
By bailing out these bozos once creates moral hazard, and despite all the whinning and screaming from Congress, more money will come. That's my bet.

If you look at GM's negative cash flow, they might go positive in about 2-3 years. The cash they got from Congress will run out in a couple months. Do the math.

Chrysler won't get enough cash from Fiat to last more than 3 months/end of year (read: main reason for Fiat's chief to sound the alarms). So you ya think will step in????

Has anyone seen how much the $8000 homebuyers credit is supposed to cost? This seems relatively small and means a lot to buyers who qualify. It seems like this is something they will try to keep going forever - if they don't end it now and things don't end in utter collapse.

According to the Nat'l Ass'n of Realtors, the $8,000 bribe will have prompted 350,000 add'l home sales in 2009. The tax credit will have cost $15 billion. That works out to almost $43,000 per additional sale (some sales would have occurred anyway).

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/16/busine....

Obviously without the $8,000 bribe, demand would have been lower, and it would have been more of a buyers' market. Buyers would have been able to buy for less. Which is better: pay $200k and get an $8k tax credit or buy the same house for, say, $185,000 and not get a tax credit? I'd take the latter. Buyers are getting hurt - not helped - by the existence of the $8,000 bribe.

I e-mailed both of my senators (including the venerable Al Franken) and my congressman, respectfully requesting that they not extend the bribery scheme.

These bribes are like heroin. Tough to kick.

Election season will soon be upon us so no, I don't think more overt stimulus will be forthcoming.

they will just extend it again.. obviously the bond market has no balls. **** they will soon have 15000 housing credits. Insane and utter bull**** but no bond market bond holders with balls.

wake me up when the smart money gets smart

I think the opposite! everyone likes a stimulus when it helps them. So probably not more bankster bailouts. Our treasury and govt wealth is the ultimate tragedy of the commons.

Pcaldallas,

"I didn't realize a car was an impulse buy."

A house is often an impulse buy. Not to you or me, probably, but to a lot of people. I've spent more time debating buying a computer monitor than some people spend thinking about buying a $1 mil house. But then I'm a cheap sumbich who buys the generic freeze-dried coffee for $4 instead of the Folgers for $5.

I want $200 applicances stimulus for my new dishwasher :) AND
I want $500 lodging stimulus for my upcoming vacation :) AND
I want $50 sex-toy stimulus for my ex-girl friend's gift :)

That should do it for now.

Strange, I just had a conversation with a friend (Crysler Dealer Salesperson). They said exactly what Karl said ... Clunkers is killing them for 2 reasons. Demand pulled forward means sales will be slim in the coming months and the program depleted inventory, they don't expect to have new cars on the lot until 2010 cars start shipping. This person also said they just got paid by the Government today. They are pretty worried for sure.

You have to close escrow by Nov 31 to receive the $8000 credit,,,,,

Escrows take plus or mionus 6 weeks so time is running out.